Getting a Preview of the Schools of Tomorrow

As you examine your long-range business plans, take a look at the latest Projection of Education Statistics for insights into the future populations (and thus potential needs) for the U.S. school system.

  • Total elementary and secondary enrollment is projected to increase 4 percent between 2011 and 2023.
  • Total enrollment in grades PreK-8 is projected to increase 6 percent between 2011 and 2023. Enrollment in grades 9-12 is only expected to increase by 1 percent.
  • Enrollment in public school is expected to go up by 5 percent by 2023 but decrease by 7 percent in private schools.
  • Overall enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools is projected to slightly decrease in the Northeast (-2 percent) and the Midwest (-1 percent) but go up by 8 and 10 percent in the South and West, respectively.
  • Regarding the ethnic make-up of the students from 2011 to 2023, researchers expect a decrease of 8 percent for White students, no change in Black students, a 32 percent increase for Hispanic students, 14 percent increase for Asian/Pacific Islander students, a 6 percent decrease in American Indian/Alaska Native students, a 44 percent increase for students of two or more races.
  • The number of teachers is projected to increase 8 percent between 2011 and 2023 with an increase of 10 percent of public school teachers.
  • Current expenditures (in 2012-13 dollars) are projected to increase 8 percent between 2011 and 2023.
  • Per pupil expenditures are expected to increase  by14 percent, to $12,700, from 2009–10 to 2023–24.

Read Projection of Education Statistics to 2023, NCES (2016).

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